Introduction

After Odyssey’s launch in May 2021, it was often thought that space CZs have more impact on winning the war. Instead, the mechanism seems to be that the most number of objectives won makes the most difference. We know one of the objectives is the win condition, but there are other objectives as well:

• Space CZs have Spec Ops / Protect / Kill objectives
• Ground CZs have capture base objectives
• (Shared) Fighting in all CZs and winning a day as a result will likely move the assets fought the most to the winning side.

Methods

To investigate this in a way that can be reproducible, the experiment is designed to run both sides of the war, with the following caveats:

• The two factions at war must be present, not controlling factions¹
• The two factions’ influence should not exceed 25%²
• There must be space and ground CZs of equal value (i.e. low, medium, or high)
• If multiple CZ locations, we only ran the CZs at the same location with the same rating.²
• On any particular day, we will only run one rating of CZ (low, medium, or high) in case of hidden bonuses due to objectives

Three low CZs

Data:

• Objectives completed (bases, captured, etc)
• how long it took over the three runs
• Results

\begin{table}[ht] \centering \caption{Probability to observe Bayes Factors of a certain magnitude or above for the used sample-size of $N=60$ assuming the original and the null-hypothesis.} \begin{tabular}{llrrr} & & \multicolumn{3}{l}{$P(\text{BF}\ge\theta)$}
Hypothesis & BF Type & $\theta=3$ & $\theta=10$ & $\theta=20$
\hline $d\sim \mathcal{N}(1.57, 0.51)$ & JZS BF${10}$ & 0.98 & 0.97 & 0.96
& Replication BF${10}$ & 0.98 & 0.96 & 0.96
& Meta-Analysis BF${10}$ & 0.99 & 0.99 & 0.99 \\cline{2-5} $d=0$ & JZS BF${01}$ & 0.81 & 0.00 & 0.00
& Replication BF${01}$ & 0.98 & 0.95 & 0.91
& Meta-Analysis BF${01}$ & 0.63 & 0.27 & 0.06
\hline \end{tabular} \label{tab:probbf} \end{table}

Results

Discussion

References

1. We do not want to change the controller of any system, just observe the outcome of day or days of war ↩

2. This is to ensure that the mechanism by which lower factions have boosts are canceled out, and the movement will be larger if there is a difference. ↩ ↩²